Glenn Reynolds and others have organized a drive for charities for the purpose of hurricane relief. I choose Catholic Charities, like so many others. We will give at church this sunday. They did good work in the Asian christmas tsunami last year, and they will undoubtly help here in Houston, with the flood of refugees expected. I have a hard time coming to grips with the word myself (like the CNN anchor this evening), but it's reality.

Update: CNN reports the first buses with injured people are coming to Houston at daybreak. I think that's what FEMA was trying to say. So I think the flow will start tomorrow at around dusk. But who knows. Certainly Houston is gearing up to deal with it.

Update: Got a odd call today, I was spearheading the volunteer drive for our school (400-500 students), a student called and offered her apartment which she just moved out of until the end of Sept. Craigslist New Orleans has housing links...Very generous of the student. I think that's one thing that should be surprising but still is; how many people here want to stop everything and help these people.


Update: Supposed to add these tags:

When you post on your own blog about your selected charity, also be sure to link to Glenn's roundup post, and include the Technorati flood aid and hurricane katrina tags.

No word yet when. Spent the entire day trying to get info. The two agencies that are handling it are the Red Cross and the Harris Country Citizens Corp. I am coordinating volunteers from my school, and spent most of the day adding names to the list. So far 40 people, and climbing. We also establshed food/clothing drop off places, and figured out some of the logistics for handling that. So far the refugees haven't started coming yet. My feeling is that there is no one group coordinating everything. It seems that the office of homeland security for harris county should be coordinating it, but they aren't doing that good of a job. Probably lack of manpower. The federal dept of homeland security is requesting all their employees. Sorry, no links, too tired.

Just spoke to the Harris County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (713-881-3100), the Red Cross is handling the evacuation center, and the United Way is accepting food/clothing donations. I called the Red Cross, they don't know anything. Perhaps sometime tomorrow they will know. Anyway i'll try to keep people posted.

Update: Sent this scrap of info to the Chronicle. I also put in a call for volunteers to my school (GSBS). There is an established outreach program for teaching. Dunno if school officials want to get involved or not; i'll find out. The school is 2 miles away from the Dome.

Update2:

From WaPo

Carrie Martin, a spokesman for the American Red Cross in Washington, said at mid-morning that the plans for the evacuation were still being made, but the Red Cross, through local affiliates, would handle the operation. She said she expected it would begin in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Guess they should tell the local Red Cross this information and give them what they need to get it done. Instead of, you know, telling the press first.

So far that hasn't happened.

story from the houston chronicle. If that is the case I can go over and help them, since it's a block away. I feel terrible for these people though.

This is the guy whom I quoted last night, who seems like he knows what's going on.

Hello, I saw you quoted my update on the situation in New Orleans I am tracking and sharing analysis from Colorado, I have done relief work before but am not in this one, just care a lot and want to try to help.

update just now:

It is essential to clearly place the news coming from New Orleans and the region in the perspective of the events, not only for oursleves but to help understand the challenges that the officials and support on the scene face.

It is a natural unavoidable event. The Hurricane brought wind and water, both air borne and pushed by the force of the wind. These wrought great destruction on all fixed
items, buildings, trees, any constructions of any kind. These also impacted the people there, directly by force of the storm and now by the effects of the aftermath. These effects after will continue unabated untill their initial force is spent. This includes the flooding, in all forms and the results of that, and the effects on what is a very large
urban area with an incredibly complex infrastructure, communities in the city that are hundreds of years old, people from all walks of life and economic levels, the event cuts across all lines. In the city currently however, there is a large and complex blend of people. Many of them have no resources and great stress right now.

The officials have limited resources and very limited ways that they can apply them. The water in the streets is almost totally going to impede efforts to move machinery and people by ground. By air, there are severe limits to what the air units can achieve immeidatly.

The water will rise to the extent that the geography will allow. The levees can be repaired. Even though the first efforts may have not succeeded to say they have failed is not accurate. The Army Corps of Engineers said clearly that they would marshall their forces and get ready to solve the problem TOMORROW. It takes time to move major equipment
into place, and even if the pumps in place fail now, they can bring in even larger ones in mobile units.

It is essential in times of crisis to be calm internally and in how we speak and write about this situation. This means that we should not either repress or hide facts, nor should
we engender and encourage despair. We can as a nation and as people of that nation achieve miracles if we work together, and do not give in to hate or anger or fear or focus on the negative things like the looting. There is only so much any police force can do and they must prioritize the saving of lives, property while valuable, is tangible as was clearly and very well put by the Governor today in the presentation.

The priorities are:

1. Saving lives


2. Dealing with the most immediate natural forces: the flooding and and the inflow of water


3. Health hazzards and preservation of public health


4. Supplying food and shelter to the extent possible


5. Public Safety
   Planning for current and future measures. Upholding the hope and courage of all involved.


6. Human Needs, succour, counsel, encouragement, calming, stress release


7. Leadership and Highest Character by all, not just the leaders in charge
   

We can all make a difference.

This is not an impossible situation, it is a challenging one, and one that we can understand and help with in countless ways.

There will be and will continue to be loss of life, injury and loss of all kinds. But we know that we and all there will do all they can to help with this. The recovery and rebuilding will take months and years and offers chances for improvement and much good. But it will be very hard and take a lot of patience. No one can go back now, today, this week
or maybe for quite some time.

The entire New Orleans area is part of a huge hydraulic natural river delta, which is the release point for a huge watershed, an entire mid continental region. The fore and power of the water involved is huge and inexonerable. Immediate efforts to deal with this are a must and I am
sure are being done. Immediate success is not to be expected, for many measures must be developed and tried.

The Navy is sending help, in the form of amphibeous forces. The Coast Guard is already performing miracles. The Airforce is bringing in a C 130 with shallow draft craft to help with the rescue. The resources of a vast nation are being focused but take time, a day or two to begin to arrive in force.

So each of us can share and seek information and share thoughts and concerns but for the sake of all in peril and risk and trauma, let us do it with consideration, dignity and respect.

From Wizbang

A Note to My Fellow Bloggers and the MSM

[I'm going to keep this at the top for a while, check below for more Wizbang! content.]

To: My Fellow Bloggers and most of the MSM

From: Paul at Wizbang on behalf of himself and serving as self-appointed spokesman for Hurricane Katrina victims everywhere.

With all due respect guys and gals... Chill out.

I've never seen one event inspire so many silly posts. Many of you need to put down the mouse and walk away. ;-)

I've seen the same blogger complain both that the coverage of Katrina was "Hurricane Porn" beforehand and in a separate post whine that the media did not do enough to convince people that they should have evacuated.... You can't have it both ways.

I fully understand if bloggers were disallowed from complaining about the media and politicians, that modem and broadband sales would suffer double digit sales slumps.... But take a break.

If you think you are more qualified to run the city then the people running it, then by all means when the next election cycle comes around, come on down and throw your hat in the ring. If you think you could have stopped the hurricane if only everyone had listened to you... well I can't help ya.

There'll be plenty of time to show off your 20/20 hindsight next week. For now, accept this for what it is... a natural disaster of biblical proportions.

If you want to do something, quit yer whining and do what blogs and bloggers do best... Use information to change the world.

99% of us have no idea how our neighborhoods did. Somebody try to find and compile (reliable) damage reports from specific neighborhoods. Sure it takes some local knowledge, but google maps will fill in the blanks. [Update: The levee broke and the whole damn town flooded so I guess we can check this one off the list.]

We don't know how FEMA works. Somebody read the news reports on what FEMA is doing and what it is not... Somebody read their site and distill it for those of us who don't have time for red tape.

Flood insurance? I know the feds handle it. Who do I need to talk to? What do they pay?

Every natural disaster I send the Red Cross my standard $100 donation. I have no idea how to get money from them. It is a grant or a loan?

If I don't actually cancel my phones and my bill is auto-debit do they still bill me?

If I shut off my phone will I lose my number?

Heck- Somebody make an "Evacuee survival guide" with laser precision information on how to get help without clicking 50 links or waiting on hold 2 hours. If you can save 25,000 people 5 hours of looking up the same information, think of the power in that!

Think of the simple things- Thousands of people lost their glasses. Somebody set up a website where they can coordinate donations of (known) prescription glasses from people who no longer need them. Get a freight company to donate the freight. I bet FedEx will give you an account number that will route all the glasses to some agency in New Orleans.

If you do something to help the victims, ping this post... If there is a lot of people helping out, Kevin will set up a post with the links. (I just volunteered him ;)

Think about it for a second from my chair... (I'm not whining but) I'm almost 40 years old.... Here is the sum total of all my worldly possessions: 4 pairs of shorts, 5 shirts, 2 pairs of shoes, 4 pairs of underwear, 1 pair of blue jeans, a box of family pictures, 2 flashlights, a piece of trench art my grandfather brought back from WWI and my father's hammer. (Hey, it means a lot to me!) That's it. Everything else is gone. And BTW, I'm unemployed.

I tell you that not to whine but to let you see the tree thru the forest. Multiply my situation by about a million. Stop and think about that... A million people homeless and unemployed.

If you're a blogger then (by near definition) you're a self proclaimed talented person. Prove it. They'll be plenty of time for punditry and pontification next month... In the mean time there is work to be done. Figure out how to help the victims.

Please (for the sake of all of us who actually understand the situation) please stop whining about the evacuation. It was a stunning success. Please stop saying that the levee at 17th street and Canal St. broke... There's no such place. (and no, FOXNews, even if there was such a place, I assure you, it would be on the south side of the lake and not the north side of the lake where you showed it on your map)

So here it is in a nutshell... Let's get some work done and play Monday morning quarterback sometime in early 2006. There's about million or so of us who would prefer it that way.

This is from 'Chris' who, I guess, is one of the emergency workers. Finally some info is trickling down. I'm quoting it in entirity since it's pretty useful/interesting stuff.

Hi Brendan, I only have a moment must
get to a meeting, but wanted to post summary of Governor and Army Corps news conference from my perspective but dont have time to see if you have covered this yet.

They are planning to try to close the largest breach in the levee with whatever measures will be effective over the long run, Army Corps is thinking of using large shipping containers filled with sand, and or large sand bags, they will be brining in large cranes, barges, air asssets,
and manpower, and should be at it by tomorrow. The largest breach is 300 ft plus and there is a smaller one as well.

The water has been rising all day, early AM it ws knee deep at the KatrinaDome, by afternoon it was thigh deep. They are contemplating, planning to see about evacuating all the 25,000 to 30,000 (count according to a registered nurse in the Dome @ mid day)
somewhere else for now they are brining in all the people they rescue to the Dome.

They say that the entire city will have to be evauced, but the biggest challenge according to the FEMA Head of staff on scene is that there is little or no dry land to move them to in the city. They will see about building tent cities, temp housing, bringing in dormatory barges, and locateing them in the neightborhoods peopel are from as much as possible so that they can attend school, church etc. He said they will have to "recreate" New Orleans.
He , the Army Corp head said that they have the authorization or will get the authroization to do whatever needs to be done.

The double long bridge to Slidelle is totally broken in countless places, I counted over a hundred breaks or missing sections, the briges were built in sections and many of them are tilted, or just gone, missing, from both spans, though there are intact lengths, quite long, so neither is complete at this point. There is at least one car stuck out on the span.

There is NO power in the city, and no operating sewers, and growing looting and loss of order. Most of the city, up to 80% is under differeing depths of water, but according to some reports the flow is slowing. There are thousands who need rescuing, but the authorities will concentrate on the life threatening situations, and on brining in supplies to feed and water these people in the city before trying to organize evac.

The Dome is getting tough, at least one hospital is evacing its cases to the dome, Tulane is evacing as they will lose even their temp generators soon.
The dome cannot be cooled with the temp generators they have and they will lose them soon to water rising.

There are fires buring several commercial structures that I observed and a large fire in the distance possibly at the oil facilities. The police and presumably fire units cannot navigate the streets due to water, and the fire units planned to station their units on the elevated freeway sections in the event the water rose as it is.

The Governor sounds pretty stable considering the pressures and the stress, she is determined to rebuild and to save all that can be saved. The Army Corp staff and FEMA both sound excellent and well organized, The National Guard is still 50% in the USA, and they say they have the assets they need for now, some of the neighboring states are sending help from their guaards. There is general shock among the people I sense, including the news media and I appologize for being so hard on them in past posts, they are unprepared for such catastrophic conditions and are doing the best they can. Everyone involved should get traumtaic stress support asap, especially the Governor and the high staff. There are many airlifts underway, I saw Coast Guard and Army units, and this is working well it appears, but what will be done with many of these people? There will be a great many.

The rest of the coast I did not have time to get much imput on but I sense that it may be even worse, but unreachable, many parts of it were totally wiped out, I saw one fly over that showed total devastation, just foundations and rubble to the East.

In general I think finally the scope of the disaster is getting through to the top leaders and to some of the people, thoiugh many will still be in shock. Keep up the news sharing, you are doing great. I will check back soon.
Chris | 08.30.05 - 6:43 pm | #

Update: Mayor says efforts to repair levee has failed, will have to wait until water levels equalize to begin repair.

Mayor Ray Nagin has announced that the attempt to plug a breach in the
17th Street canal at the Hammond Highway bridge has failed and the
rising water is about to overwhelm the pumps on that canal.
The result is that water will begin rising rapidly again, and could
reach as high as 3 feet above sea level. In New Orleans and Jefferson
Parish, that means floodwaters could rise as high as 15 feet in the next
few hours.
Nagin urged residents to try to find higher ground as soon as possible.

From what I gather from the above, the authorities will completely evaculate NOLA as much as possible, repair the levees, repair the pumps, start draining the city. It will take weeks probably just to drain the city. I feel very bad for residents.

Update2: Michelle Malkin, a big name blogger, has lots of info...basically the same stuff that's here and elsewhere (Irish Trojan, Times-Picayune), but prettier. (The info or the blogger? I'll leave it to readers to decide).



technorati tag

Since, so far, the authorities have not been able to plug the breach in the lake P. levee, things continue to deteriorate.

3:25 P.M. - With conditions in the hurricane-ravaged city of New Orleans rapidly deteriorating, Gov. Kathleen Blanco said Tuesday that people now huddled in the Superdome and other rescue centers need to be evacuated.

"The situation is untenable," Blanco said during a news conference. "It's just heartbreaking."

This is from the WWLTV blog which is doing an outstanding job of delivering and coordinating information.

Irish Trojan is also doing a great job.

Surprisingly, not much info from MSM on the levee breach, i guess it's because of the situation; can't get in, can't find people who are in charge, no power to disperse info. We (outside world) can't tell how bad it is. Its possible that the water will stop before it hits uptown. It's discussed more here. This is basically what I (think) I said yesterday; if the levees are breached, and the breach is not repaired, water level will rise to equal the lake level, which is I think sealevel, or maybe a bit above that, depending on flooding.

Update: Here is a great WaPo article about the levee breach. I think, from looking at the levee system, only part of NOLA will flood. But basically the city is almost entirely underwater, except for a few ridges such as Gentilly ridge. My sense is that people in the blogosphere (and perhaps the real authorities) are desparately trying to figure out how much of the city will flood. Just from the elevation map, it looks like the French quarter should be safe, it's 10' above sea level. But I know that water is 2' deep in the area at last count (from watching TV).

Also, I haven't heard any official word, but the shelter sites and hospitals in NOLA are definately being evacuated, to Baton Rouge.

This is good news though, Houston is acting as generous neighbors. I live there, wish I knew how to help (besides $$).

Update: Foxnews now reports the same thing; the gov urges evacuation. I fear that NOLA will become a no-man's land as the miscredents begin looting and anarchy breaks out. They need to get troops there, but communication is severely hampered.

Update2: Seems like I'm not the only one concerned about the might miss. But I may be just a hypocondriac. (From Irish Trojan)

And Katy writes, "A truly scary thought that was mentioned on the news earlier involves floodwaters coming down the Mississippi from the torrential rains Katrina is creating farther north. Hope that doesn't happen."

Update3: This is a better graphic of the levee system. At least two have failed: 17th st. canal and the Industrial canal. So, i'd imagine most of east NO, north of the river, is at risk.

Update4: Not NOLA related. Regarding south lousiana, south of New Orleans. Very widespread devestation.

"We have witnessed the most extraordinary devastation," said Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who surveyed the damage in a State Police helicopter with U.S. Sens. David Vitter and Mary Landrieu. "The magnitude of the situation is unbelievable. It's just heartbreaking."

I don't want to get into body counts...but prepare for the worst, worse than 9/11. The nation must be strong.

This is from the WWLTV archive, credits AP Photo/Eric Gay

I've seen a few of these types of pictures in the last few days. I think America (or the photographers) want to know that no matter what the flag still flies, and America can trimuph any adversery. Call it a Iwo Jima moment.

New reports of NOLA levees breaking (the levee from Lake Pontchartrain). I know I'm a hypocondriac, but what happens when the storm moves upstream, and all that water comes down. The mississippi could be flooding for days/weeks.

The same foxnews story has some pictures associated.

Anyway, some picture archives are scattered around.
Here's one from WWL-TV

Here's another from Yahoo.

Stormtrack has more, and deserves a hat tip.

Damage/body count, estimates at 20-25 billion, and 58 people so far. I suspect it will be a while before we find out.

In other news, fill up your gas tank now, because gas prices are going to spike in many areas of the country (not, apparently, hawaii, thank god).

I'm not sure what that will do to Texas; we have our own refineries in Port Author (about an hour away) and Corpus Christi (about 4 hours away). The gas companies will probably 'share the love', sinec gas isn't any cheaper in those cities (and bizzarely, we couldn't even find a gas station in Port Arthor, which is just one giant refinery).

Update: Glenn Reynolds (and Daniel Drezner) complain about too much hurricane hype (or as Drezner puts it 'hurricane porn". I might be guilty of that myself, in this case. But as I mentioned, I don't expect to see a storm of this intensity for some time; and it missed us by about 350 miles.

Update2: A longer report of the levee break in NOLA here.

Update3: NOLA declares martial law. Some predictions have come true, regarding flooding in the city, pollution, critters, etc. Canal street is now a canal, whereas yesterday it wasn't. This is due to the levee from the lake breaking, which was predicted on Sunday by some. Maybe it was Steve Gregory or NOAA, sorry I can't remember. The American Radioworks essay described this somewhat. I believe the phenomina had to do with the fact that the increased rainful increased the Lake size (which is very shallow to begin with), and storm surge from the storm as it moves south, increases waves on the lake, until the levee is breached. Once it's breached, the only place for the water to is within NOLA. I don't think the flooding is that bad; looks like a foot or two in the french quarter area (which is several miles away from the lake. Anyway, hopefully as I said the river levees will hold.

Update4: According to the Times Picayune newspaper, water is still rising as of Tuesday morning, and they have evacuated their staff. Hope they figure out how to seal the levee breech. I think the cause is pretty obvious, but I'm not there. Lots of horror stories on the above site. And now that martial law has been declared, getting info will be tough.

Update5: A video on how the levee broke; it's actually a canal levee. May be days before it's fixed, no estimates yet.

Update6: According to news reports from CNN (TV), the water is still rising, in the french quarter it's about 2' currently. This will continue until lake ponchestein (sp) and NOLA level out, since now NOLA and the lake are basically teh same thing. Dunno if the pumps are working or not, they may be more effective once the breech is repaired. May be a few days for water to drain, unlike other areas, ie mobile, boluxi...which is why experts were so concerned about NOLA in the first place. Wizbang reports 'completely destroyed', I disagree, so far. I think the water will continue to rise though, but won't result in loss of life (too much), since one bridge is still open, and the water rise is gradual. So this isn't the dooms day scenario forcasted (thank god). Final update of the day, i swear :)

This is from Bogo Blogger. Usually I don't quote verbatum but this is extremely funny. Thanks bogo!

* The Fasting & Prayer Conference includes meals.

* The sermon this morning: "Jesus Walks on the Water." The sermon tonight "Searching for Jesus."

* Our youth basketball team is back in action Wednesday at 8 PM in the recreation hall. Come out and watch us kill Christ the King.

* Ladies, don't forget the rummage sale. It's a chance to get rid of those things not worth keeping around the house. Don't forget your husbands.

* The peacemaking meeting scheduled for today has been canceled due to a conflict.

* Remember in prayer the many who are sick of our community. Smile at someone who is hard to love. Say "Hell" to someone who doesn't care much about you.

* Don't let worry kill you off - let the Church help.

* Miss Charlene Mason sang "I will not pass this way again," giving obvious pleasure to the congregation.

* For those of you who have children and don't know it, we have a nursery downstairs.

* Next Thursday there will be tryouts for the choir. They need all the help they can get.

* Barbara remains in the hospital and needs blood donors for more transfusions. She is also having trouble sleeping and requests tapes of Pastor Jack's sermons.

* The Rector will preach his farewell message after which the choir will sing "Break Forth Into Joy."

* Irving Benson and Jessie Carter were married on October 24 in the church. So ends a friendship that began in their school days.

* A bean supper will be held on Tuesday evening in the church hall. Music will follow.

* At the evening service tonight, the sermon topic will be "What Is Hell?" Come early and listen to our choir practice.

* Eight new choir robes are currently needed due to the addition of several new members and to the deterioration of some older ones.

* Scouts are saving aluminum cans, bottles and other items to be recycled. Proceeds will be used to cripple children.

* Please place your donation in the envelope along with the deceased person you want remembered.

* The church will host an evening of fine dining, super entertainment and gracious hostility.


* Potluck supper Sunday at 5:00 PM - prayer and medication to follow.

* The ladies of the Church have cast off clothing of every kind. They may be seen in the basement on Friday afternoon.

* This evening at 7 PM there will be a hymn singing in the park across from the Church. Bring a blanket and come prepared to sin.

* Ladies Bible Study will be held Thursday morning at 10 AM. All ladies are invited to lunch in the Fellowship Hall after the B.S. is done.

* The pastor would appreciate it if the ladies of the congregation would lend him their electric girdles for the pancake breakfast next Sunday.

* Low Self Esteem Support Group will meet Thursday at 7 PM. Please use the back door.

* The eighth-graders will be presenting Shakespeare's Hamlet in the Church basement Friday at 7 PM. The congregation is invited to attend this tragedy.

* Weight Watchers will meet at 7 PM at the First Presbyterian Church. Please use large double door at the side entrance.

* The Associate Minister unveiled the church's new tithing campaign slogan last Sunday: "I Upped My Pledge - Up Yours !

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND YA'LL!

Looks like the storm barely missed NOLA (Steve Gregory at Weather Underground accurately predicted this). At the last minute there was a slight veer, so that the western eyewall was passing through east NOLA. The center of the storm passed about 30 miles to the east of the city, which is enough to prevent the 30 foot storm surge that was predicted. It's still a cat 4 storm, and hurricane strength winds are being felt within the city. There will be flooding but so far it's not that bad. I think most experts are worried about the storm surge from the lake when the storm passes through. Should know by tonight though. I would surprised if NOLA manages to get through without the massive flooding and lost of life that is predicted; but hopefully just that will occur.

I wondered which journalists would cover the storm from the french quarter. Apparently the CNN blogger Miles O'Brien and crew has decided to go to Baton Rouge instead of waiting it out in the french quarter. Smart move.

Update. Apparently alot of weather journalists are also bugging out. And the graphics are just incredible, from the Weather Underground blog.
They show that New Orleans will encounter cat 3 winds (96 mph), which is better than 175 mph winds I suppose. Mobile will also get hit. But the eyewall is almost a direct hit on NOLA.

Update2. Some are predicting five-figure casulties. And oil will shoot through the roof, since 1/3 of the nation gets their oil through NOLA. I think the casulty figure is very possible. Damage could exceed 100 billion. In terms of scope and damage, this will be far worse than 9/11. Sorry to sound so grim.


Update3. 20-30 foot storm swells are possible, plus the huge amount of wind-driven waves, plus the lake overflow. Experts predict a cat 5 storm will flood the french quarter 20 feet. What would that do? Flood most of the low-rise buildings. The wind will destroy almost anything anyway.

The above linked story is pretty good and somewhat frightening about the probability of a cat 5 hurricaine in NOLA. Experts predict 20,000-100,000 casulties in this event. One option would be to simply demolish the city and rebuild it elsewhere.


Update 4. The wikipedia entry of Hurricane Katrina is excellent source of info.

The hurricane has already started to soak NOLA and surrounding areas. Won't be long now.

Update 5. Previous 'really bad' storms to hit NOLA had only 500-1000 casulties. Maybe this won't be so bad.

Then there's this NOAA statement, apocalyptic is one word choice one would use.

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-MSZ068>071-077-290300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-
PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. HELENA-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
SREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR 22 TO 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND
DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

I don't think I've ever seen a statement such as this. On the good side, this will likely be the worst storm our generation has or will see. Good think we are not in the path.

Update: Pres Bush has urged all within the storm path to flee, which is also somewhat of a rarity. Only 3 cat 5 storms have ever hit the U.S., I believe.

Update2: This is almost funny.

National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said: "There's certainly a chance it can weaken a bit before it gets to the coast, but unfortunately this is so large and so powerful that it's a little bit like the difference between being run over by an 18-wheeler or a freight train. Neither prospect is good."

to New Orleans. People don't get it. If i knew anyone there, my advice would be extremely simple: get out. This will be one of the top five storms to hit the U.S. EVER. More discussion here. , and a blog roundup at the truth laid bear.

Irish Trojan has a good series of updates. Currently it has a pressure of 908 millibar of pressure (a signal of how strong the storm is), and max winds of 175, a catogory 5. Good news, according to the weather guys, it may weaken to a cat 3 by the time it hits land. But still, we're looking at 30 billion in damage to New orleans alone. My guess, 1000 people dead. It will take decades to recover from this; people have become too complacent. No one is taking this seriously.

Update: according to the pressure currently it's #6 in U.S. history; not the top five. Hopefully it will weaken.

Update2: It's now down to 902 mbar of pressure. This is the fourth largest storm; only one has reached landfall with a lower pressure.

Hurricane Katrina's minimum central pressure is down to 902 mb, which is fourth-lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The only hurricane that were more intense, pressure-wise, were Hurricane Allen in 1980 (899 mb), the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (892 mb), and Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb). Only the '35 hurricane made landfall at that intensity; Allen and Gilbert weakened somewhat before coming ashore. Hopefully Katrina will do the same... but it's very hard to see any reason why she would weaken substantially.

This is the storm of the century, and people will die.

This doesn't shock me at all. And dare I say, I alluded to this previously?

The human-lion conflict is a product of poverty, growth in human and lion populations and decline in traditional prey for the big cats, according to research by the University of Minnesota's Lion Research Center and Tanzania's Wildlife Research Institute.

Basically, lions are running out of food, and out of desparation are turning to humans. Makes sense to me. Call me callous, but I disagree those who call for extermination of all predators that could prey on humans. If there are only 1000 lions in the world, and 6 billion humans, and if a lion kills a person, but 1000 lions are killed every year, is this reason to exterminate them? Do we have so little ecological conscience that all other species must be stamped into the ground? Lion attacks are a symptom of a sick ecosystem, brought about by overpopulation. It's natural. I hope the lion population continues to grow.

This is pretty cool, but i have no idea what the research plan is. Scientists at Harvard want to study the origin of life and prove that divine intervention is not necessary for life to evolve. Okay, I am fine with that, but how are you going to do it? I'll delve deeper.

Meanwhile, Scott Ott, an apparent undercover I.D. (intelligent design aka creationist) has derided the whole project.

UPDATE: Hmm, Harvard actually funded the enterprise, and I can't find any reference to the science of the idea. NIH grants are available in a searchable database. I am not sure how to look at private funding such as this. Seems more like ammo for neo-Darwinism than anything else. As usual, I.D. people are shooting themselves in the foot over this:

But opponents of evolution theory say the project seems to indicate science has yet to fully prove Darwin's theory.

"This is … a stunning admission the current theories do not explain it, and it has not refuted the idea that things are the product of intelligent cause," said John West, a senior fellow at the Seattle-based Discovery Institute, a think tank that backs intelligent design theory.

The Discovery Institute advocates schools teach scientific criticisms of Darwin's theories.

1) I.D. doesn't have any answers for scientific questions, just dogma.
2) Science is all about not having all the answers. There are things we know, and things we don't know. Things we don't know about, we make hypotheses and test them. It's pretty simple. If only asshats like Mr. West had even a basic understanding of how science works.

This is not surprising; UH faculty cooking books for their star players to ensure NCAA eligability. I've seen this sort of alligations at the two universities I attended, U Hawaii and U Arizona. I think it's extremely common, although I did meet a second-stringer football player who studied astrophysics. So you can't tar everyone with the same brush. Not all jocks are stupid. But it seems alot of them just go to college to play sports, which is a complete waste. What if they break their leg or something? Anyway, this quote is laughable.

Evans, who now plays for the Houston Texans, could not be reached directly by SI.com, but he said through a Texans spokesperson that he attended all his classes that summer and turned in the work required. Evans told KPRC TV in Houston, "I took 27 [hours] that summer and the rest I took 40 [hours] between the whole school year."

This guy, not the brightest kid on the block, took 27 hours of credit in one summer? Give me a break. One class per summer term is enough to kick your butt. Maybe two, if you are really pushing it; that's 6 x 2 = 12 hours. This guy says he 'took' 27 hours in one summer? And then 40 hours in the regular session (20/20 fall/spring)? And still had time to play football? Who are we kidding? Apparently no one at the NCAA actually went to college.

Recently during a retreat, prominant ecologists decided they wanted to reintroduce predators to the great plains. Basically we lost those predators millinae ago, and the african veldt (which has lions, etc) is losing its biodiversity at a startling rate. So the plan is to then drop some of these soon to be endangered animals on huge game preserves in the midwest. Right-wingers (Ann Althouse, Glenn Reynolds) have voiced negative opinions on the subject, stating they don't want to be eaten, or have their car chased by a cheetah. However, the amount of 'man-eating' predators is likely to be very small, in the low hundreds to be sure. Predator populations rarely get out of hand (the except that comes to mind is the mountain lion problems in california and colorado), since they require so much energy (in the form of meat). I think it depends on what their ideal prey would be, if we can also introduce their prey, and the prey adapt well, then there shouldn't be a problem. If they have to look for new prey, and get desparate, then they will enter populated areas and look for anything that moves; and of course it is possible that they will be able to thrive off populated areas; livestock, domestic pets, people. On the other hand, no one is proposing the new predators (lions, etc) would be introduced into any possibility of population; they would be on game ranches.

Anyway i thought i would just post the rare time when i disagree (strongly) with right-wing bloggers.

The 're-wilding' ecologists might have doomed their PR from the start by mentioning the predators. I'd start with things like rhinos, gazelles, etc. If they survive, then move up the food chain. I think it would be incredibly interesting to see this happening, but even if it does happen, there is not a good indication this would be successful; the food-chain of africa and the great plains are very different.

Basically an enzyme, telomerase, is key for determining how long a cell lineage can survive. DNA replication always loses some DNA at the end (the telomere), because it only proceeds in one direction, 5' to 3'. There's an enzyme that adds the ends back to the chromsome (long DNA strand), called telomerase. So basically it determines how 'old' the cell could be. Loss of telomere brings cells into 'crisis', at which point they either die or become immortalized, teh first step to cancer. Now a study shows that telomerase can cause an differentiated cell to revert to a stem cell. This is third hand, based on what the NYT report says. I haven't seen the report, obviously.

By making mice grow furrier coats, researchers have discovered that an enzyme known to serve as a last-ditch defense against cancer also activates adult stem cells, which the body uses to repair its tissues.

The research, reported by Steven E. Artandi and colleagues at Stanford University in Nature today, shows that adult stem cells can be activated by an enzyme called telomerase.

The finding is surprising because telomerase is well known in a quite different context, protecting against tumors by limiting the number of times a cell can divide. The new findings put the enzyme astride two major biological pathways, one that promotes the growth of new cells for maintaining tissues and the other that prevents the excessive growth that leads to tumors.

Tourism is up. Dunno how much up, but record levels of domestic tourists. Which is important, because at last check, the international tourists (japanese mostly) have been down since a peak in the 80s.

Chekoff's roundup is here.

The short answer, as more Iraqi army units are formed, the more they are competent to execute missions without coalition support, then the coalition can switch their forces to truely 'hot' areas - Anbar province. This is show in a report here

And even the Sunnis think life is getting better (in the violence prone Sunni dominated areas). 40% of Sunnis think life will be better in a year, as compared to 15% last year. The data are here. This is a huge and significant increase. And it will get better; when more coalition forces are available, more operations can be planned, more terror cells can be eliminated. Generally speaking the terrorists are getting less trained, because the experienced ones keep dying.

Google was undertaking one of those 'we're the biggest company in the world and we can do anything' schemes, by scanning a huge swath of books from public libraries (with their approval of course). But the publishing industry fought back, saying copywright restriction (story). Two things wrong with that ridiculous argument. Actually 3.

1) Amazon is already doing just that; most new books allow you to search within the book. No screaming over that.

2) You've seen libraries, do they have current, hot books that people are rushing to buy? Not really, maybe, what, 1% of the books. Most of them are freaking old, and for academic interest only.

3) Being able to search the book isn't the same as being able to download it. So how would identifying a 40 year old book as the one you need be somehow hurtful for the print edition? You'd still have to go out and find it.

So, publishing industry, join the asshat crowd, which includes the record and motion picture industries.

Which brings me to another rant. "no camcorders in movies!". Do you know that the motion picture industry is encouraging people to make citizen's arrests if anyone is caught filming a movie? And that anyone who finds such a person gets $5000? (or some such amount) And that some movie houses (Edwards) are now coming in 2-3x per movie, and employees are trooping up and down the isles, looking for filmers?
As if i'd really take a camcorder to tape one of hollywoods lame-assed movies. I would a) find it on the internet, where it's been copied by the chinese, or b) get it from netflix, and copy it. It's kinda like the impotent man jerking off just to show he still can...pathetic.

so wrong, in so many ways.

Basically, it's an old story; school district gives kids computers, the kids hack the computers, and have a little fun. From what I read, i couldn't find too much that they did wrong. One student downloaded porn (not illegal). One used the 'monitoring' program to monitor the administrators. (so, it's legal for an 'adult' to monitor a 'student' but not the other way around?). They broke in easily because the administrator password was taped to the back of the computers.

Basically, as a computer user and reformed pirate/hacker, there is a line I think. It's wrong to launch denial of service attacks, or any other attack on another computer. It's wrong to send spam. It's wrong to try and break into computers and steal personal info, or to otherwise 'break' the computer. Do unto others applies here, I think.

But the school district threw the book at these 'hackers' and is charging them with felony trespass, which, in my mind, is too harsh a punishment. Misdemenor, sure. Felony? If all they did was download porn...what's the big deal? But there are other kids (mostly teenagers) who are making worms, viruses, launching attacks, this has gotten alot worse since i was a teenager, and is not right, they have crossed the line and should be held accountable. But until we as a society figure out where that line is, good luck. If their parents/elders don't tell them what is wrong and right, there is not much law enforcement from another country can do; we may stop one or two, but there are thousands...These kids won't be deterred by law enforcement, but they will listen to their elders I think. It's more a symptom of the state of society in Europe and Russia (which is where the vast majority of the attacks come from). Anyway enough ranting.

This seems very true. It's an interview between Gleen Reynolds and a new SciFi author.

GR: Earlier, you mentioned that life was a lot harder in the old days, and I think that's clearly true. Very few people want to go back to those times, and nothing short of global catastrophe is likely to put us there. But people like to read about them, and reenact them. Why do you think that is?

SS: Adventure has been defined as "someone else in deep ***t, far away", for starters. Few people would really like to have adventures, but it's fun to read about them and imagine them.

And of course that's the environment that formed our civilization for uncounted generations, and possibly the one to which we're more genetically adapted.

Last, and most speculatively, I think there's a general recognition that in some respects our ancestors, by surviving in a harder milieu, had virtues and qualities we are somewhat deficient in.

Unfortunately the author makes some cracks about economics, ecology, and the global environment which are whacky, but what do you expect from a layperson?

On the other hand, we now know that there are things that could knock us out of our groove. The universe is more given to catastrophe than we used to think; ice ages start in decades or years, not millennia, comets and asteroids hit the earth, frozen methane beds can erupt, or you can get volcanic eruptions that alter the world's climate overnight.

This stuff is all possible, but not likely. WHich is different from saying it couldn't happen; it could, but more on the scale of millions of years, not tens of years. I think that by the time the next ice age comes, it will be 10,000 years or more. The larger danger is the fact that the earth is heating up, and the ice caps are melting. The thing about global warming is that it will change all the ecosystems of the earth, and is irreversable, and will completely remap the low-lying areas. Places like Holland, or louisiana could be in serious trouble, unless a huge amount of technology is built to prevent flooding (as is the case in Venice). We'll adapt though, and the change will be gradual.

We report, you decide. If the UN wasn't made up of a bunch of european diplomats, then we wouldn't have nuclear proliferation issues. My predicition is that in 50 years everyone will have nukes. What then?

The latest poll showing Bush's approval rating at a 'sorry' 42%. The poll is fisked here. Fisking means analyized, in blog terms. The fiskers have uncovered the shocking truth that of the people polled, 21% weren't registered to vote, and only 39% of pollsters identified with the republican party (irrespective if they can legally vote for them or not). Whereas 49% identified with the dems. So, 50% dem, 40% rep., and Bush's approval is 42%. Historically during the bush presidency I've noticed that approval ratings have dovetailed very nicely with who you asked, either the ass or the elephant.

Which leads to my political theorum of the day. The reason why the two-party system works in America is because usually the parties rotate every few presidencies, giving both a chance to screw up the country equally. Now, the dems are complaining up a storm about bush, whereas, 10 years ago, the elephants couldnt' wait for clinton to get out. Now the dems are saying 'well, at least all he did was sleep with an intern'. Wait until the next dem comes around, and the elephants will be screaming 'well, at least bush didn't invade out country'. I'm pissed at bush for numerous reasons, but now that i am actually looking for a job i need the NIH budget to increase so i can find finding to support my research. Since bush came to office, funding has dropped sharply. This has to do with the fact that the NIH budget wsa doubled over 10 years, starting in 93? (can't recall), and now is being funded at equal levels for the past few years...so now that there are many more researchers, they suddently stopped supporting them. Its equivalent to a funding cut, and the result is a decline in U.S. medical research. NOt an opinion, just the facts.

It's important to keep what he said in context, so here it is.

Q I wanted to ask you about the -- what seems to be a growing debate over evolution versus intelligent design. What are your personal views on that, and do you think both should be taught in public schools?

THE PRESIDENT: I think -- as I said, harking back to my days as my governor -- both you and Herman are doing a fine job of dragging me back to the past. (Laughter.) Then, I said that, first of all, that decision should be made to local school districts, but I felt like both sides ought to be properly taught.

Q Both sides should be properly taught?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, people -- so people can understand what the debate is about.

Q So the answer accepts the validity of intelligent design as an alternative to evolution?

THE PRESIDENT: I think that part of education is to expose people to different schools of thought, and I'm not suggesting -- you're asking me whether or not people ought to be exposed to different ideas, and the answer is yes.

Glenn Reynolds had this to say, which i fully agree with.

Now if I were a White House spinmeister I'd say this was just about teaching children the shape of the debate. But I feel sure that Bush wouldn't be satisfied by a curriculum that exposed the many fallacies of Intelligent Design (the biggest being that its proponents start with a particular Designer in mind and then try to marshal the evidence). And certainly the constituency that he's trying to satisfy wouldn't be.

Nothing wrong with all the angles/positions of an important issue, this is a critical skill for decision making. However, when one angle is an appeal to belief and emotion while the other angle is based on scientific facts and logic, well, it's not an equal comparison. Anyway this sort of subject should be left until 'kids' can appreciate the differences in the debate, until college. Before that it smacks of brainwashing.