we're famous
Houston makes the rounds via InstaGlenn, via LA Times. The article is subscription firewalled, so here it is.
Typical inflammatory stuff via LA Times.
Too bad it's not true, according to my crude but laborious analysis. I took the beat stats of the area where I live, right next to the Astrodome, which was the first area the Katrina evacuees came to via the buses from NO. I added up all the crimes in this area from 2004 to July 2006, excluding Nov-Dec 2004, it wasn't available. I then extrapolated the stats for 2004 and 2006. For all major areas of crime, there was no significant change in numbers. This doesn't take into account the fact that crime tends to be worse during winter, since the winter months for 2004 and 2006 aren't available. Further, it doesn't take into account per capita crime stats; I assume the population here went up after Katrina, so the effect would be to actually decrease crime rates.
Here is the chart.
Update: Instaflood! Thank you god, err Glenn! :)
I encourage the Army of Davids to get the data and have a look yourself, since HPD (Houston Police) doesn't actually tabulate data, just make it available.
Update:Thanks to the people in the comments; i found these data for 2004/2005. I'll try to find some aggregate of 2006 later today. The murder rate increased 10% from 2004 to 2005, but all other crimes decreased or stayed the same.
Update2:
I went and added all the HPD stats for this year and did a yearly estimate, and correlated that with the FBI stats. We don't know the current population of Houston, so per capita estimates are not useful. Yes, the murder rate has soared, from 272 in '04 to 408 (est) in '06. However, overall there is no surge in crime. Look at the data and judge for yourself. The blanks for 2006 represent gaps in the data. HPD doesnt measure the same catagories as the FBI. Violent crime = murder+rape+assault+robbery
Update3:
So, the data show that murder has soared ~40%, but not other crimes.
Question1: Does HPD measure attempted murder in these stats? I would expect that to also soar. Assault hasn't significantly increased (probably keeping up with population).
Question2: Who is killing who? Gangbanger vs gangbanger or are non-criminals involved? I'm not saying it's okay for a criminal to kill another criminal (ie gang member). But we have to make up our mind that we really care and this is a significant issue. I haven't heard much out of the politians saying this is something that needs to happen.
Question3: Are there more thieves per capita in the evacuee population than normal? Or did they all stay in NO?
Interesting questions, few answers. Gus Van Horn also has a very nice but older series of posts on this topic.
Update4: Probably the last update. I took the murders for the last 3 months and using a handy mapping program mapped their locations in Houston. The result is below. (also here in a clickable map) Some areas are very 'clean', ie Bellaire, to the left (concentrated around the SW corner of the 610 loop) of the Astrodome area (large arrow). Most that are south of I-10 seem concentrated in the Sharpstown area (along SR59, running NE/SW), and Almeda (between 288 and I-45, 288 running N/S in the middle of the map, and 45 just east of 288). Note outside the beltway I don't think HPD keeps stats since it's not their juristiction.
I think the only remarkable thing is that, while they happen all over, some areas are devoid, ie Memorial around 10 and 610, the med center/bellaire area, inside 610 between 288 and 59, and Jacinto City which is mostly industrial I believe.
HOUSTON — When the "Katricians" rise up in violence, Houstonians had better be packing some serious heat.
That's the inflammatory message of a new gun-shop commercial on the radio that gives Hurricane Katrina evacuees a vaguely alien-sounding name, and advises Texans to take up arms to defend themselves against crimes committed by the newcomers.
...
Texas officials said applications for concealed-weapons permits were up statewide: 60,328 from Jan. 1 to Sept. 1 this year, compared with 46,298 for the same period last year.
The Houston Police Department estimates that one in five homicides in the city now involves Katrina evacuees — as suspect, victim or both.
Typical inflammatory stuff via LA Times.
Too bad it's not true, according to my crude but laborious analysis. I took the beat stats of the area where I live, right next to the Astrodome, which was the first area the Katrina evacuees came to via the buses from NO. I added up all the crimes in this area from 2004 to July 2006, excluding Nov-Dec 2004, it wasn't available. I then extrapolated the stats for 2004 and 2006. For all major areas of crime, there was no significant change in numbers. This doesn't take into account the fact that crime tends to be worse during winter, since the winter months for 2004 and 2006 aren't available. Further, it doesn't take into account per capita crime stats; I assume the population here went up after Katrina, so the effect would be to actually decrease crime rates.
Here is the chart.
Update: Instaflood! Thank you god, err Glenn! :)
I encourage the Army of Davids to get the data and have a look yourself, since HPD (Houston Police) doesn't actually tabulate data, just make it available.
Update:Thanks to the people in the comments; i found these data for 2004/2005. I'll try to find some aggregate of 2006 later today. The murder rate increased 10% from 2004 to 2005, but all other crimes decreased or stayed the same.
Update2:
I went and added all the HPD stats for this year and did a yearly estimate, and correlated that with the FBI stats. We don't know the current population of Houston, so per capita estimates are not useful. Yes, the murder rate has soared, from 272 in '04 to 408 (est) in '06. However, overall there is no surge in crime. Look at the data and judge for yourself. The blanks for 2006 represent gaps in the data. HPD doesnt measure the same catagories as the FBI. Violent crime = murder+rape+assault+robbery
Update3:
So, the data show that murder has soared ~40%, but not other crimes.
Question1: Does HPD measure attempted murder in these stats? I would expect that to also soar. Assault hasn't significantly increased (probably keeping up with population).
Question2: Who is killing who? Gangbanger vs gangbanger or are non-criminals involved? I'm not saying it's okay for a criminal to kill another criminal (ie gang member). But we have to make up our mind that we really care and this is a significant issue. I haven't heard much out of the politians saying this is something that needs to happen.
Question3: Are there more thieves per capita in the evacuee population than normal? Or did they all stay in NO?
Interesting questions, few answers. Gus Van Horn also has a very nice but older series of posts on this topic.
Update4: Probably the last update. I took the murders for the last 3 months and using a handy mapping program mapped their locations in Houston. The result is below. (also here in a clickable map) Some areas are very 'clean', ie Bellaire, to the left (concentrated around the SW corner of the 610 loop) of the Astrodome area (large arrow). Most that are south of I-10 seem concentrated in the Sharpstown area (along SR59, running NE/SW), and Almeda (between 288 and I-45, 288 running N/S in the middle of the map, and 45 just east of 288). Note outside the beltway I don't think HPD keeps stats since it's not their juristiction.
I think the only remarkable thing is that, while they happen all over, some areas are devoid, ie Memorial around 10 and 610, the med center/bellaire area, inside 610 between 288 and 59, and Jacinto City which is mostly industrial I believe.
Can't have that now, can we?
Josh
But admittedly my statistical analysis was far from rigerous. Maybe someone could do better (hoping). Oh, and not to be a snob, but it's Dr. Dejournett.
Also, in my personal experience in the emergency departments and operating rooms of the hospitals there, I can tell you that there was a significant number of trauma cases which involved Katrinians.
So, I must respectfully withold supporting your conclusions.
Focussing on murders, according to the UCR from the FBI, the city of Houston had 272 murders in 2004, 334 in 2005. The greater Houston/Sugar Land/Baytown MSA had 334 murders in 2004, 477 in 2005. Up from 8.0 per 100,000 in 2004 to 9.1 per 100,000 in 2005. That's a big jump after years of decline. Katrina was the one factor that changed in that time period.
Data for 2004.
Data for 2005.
Instead of going to the individual neighborhood, just open up the excel or access files from this page. Murder and nonnegligent homicide from January 05 to july 05 was 190. For the same period in 2006 it was 224.
Further, Dome-area stats don't mean a whole lot, because the evacuees were there for a short time. For more meaningful data, look at the beats in the Westchase and Bellaire areas.
How do you figure? Do you have any data to suggest that when crime rates rise, they rise equally across all categories of crime?
So, Matt, instead of telling me what is going on in my own neighborhood (the assertation that Katrina evacuees did not settle around the dome is not true, I know several), you could promote public awareness of the spike in murders. I don't see any evacuees settling in Bellaire, moreover, because only single family detached dwelling are available, and the median house price is quite high. There are probably quite a few evacuees here in the dome area where it is nothing but multi-story apartments and condos, and scattered eastward into Almeda and northward to Sharpstown. As far as I know Bellaire does not have any significant gang activity which would be expected to cause a spike in murders.
If you got the data from the Houston Police, it's because the areas around those aren't actually Houston, they're bunker hill/Hedwig/Piney point villages and are served by the Memorial Villages Police Department. The area around there is quite nice though, and I wouldn't be surprised if there weren't any there.