Michael Barone has a great piece on polls, including some interesting stats. Did you know 22% more people voted for W in 2004 vs 2000?

Bottom line, he says, is mobilizing the base, since the independents usually sit off-years out. That makes sense to me. Its the people who are apathetic to voting that campaigns are trying to lure in. And the Republican machine is in full force. Since polls are somewhat unreliable, we're left with some ambiguity on election day, which may be not a bad thing.

Update: Human events has a list of 'at risk' seats, but they are possible wrong about Tx district 22, aka Tom Delay's district. The chronicle now reports that the write in candidate Secula-Gibs is a likely winner of the race.