to New Orleans. People don't get it. If i knew anyone there, my advice would be extremely simple: get out. This will be one of the top five storms to hit the U.S. EVER. More discussion here. , and a blog roundup at the truth laid bear.

Irish Trojan has a good series of updates. Currently it has a pressure of 908 millibar of pressure (a signal of how strong the storm is), and max winds of 175, a catogory 5. Good news, according to the weather guys, it may weaken to a cat 3 by the time it hits land. But still, we're looking at 30 billion in damage to New orleans alone. My guess, 1000 people dead. It will take decades to recover from this; people have become too complacent. No one is taking this seriously.

Update: according to the pressure currently it's #6 in U.S. history; not the top five. Hopefully it will weaken.

Update2: It's now down to 902 mbar of pressure. This is the fourth largest storm; only one has reached landfall with a lower pressure.

Hurricane Katrina's minimum central pressure is down to 902 mb, which is fourth-lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The only hurricane that were more intense, pressure-wise, were Hurricane Allen in 1980 (899 mb), the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (892 mb), and Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb). Only the '35 hurricane made landfall at that intensity; Allen and Gilbert weakened somewhat before coming ashore. Hopefully Katrina will do the same... but it's very hard to see any reason why she would weaken substantially.

This is the storm of the century, and people will die.

Then there's this NOAA statement, apocalyptic is one word choice one would use.

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-MSZ068>071-077-290300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-
PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. HELENA-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
SREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR 22 TO 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND
DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

I don't think I've ever seen a statement such as this. On the good side, this will likely be the worst storm our generation has or will see. Good think we are not in the path.

Update: Pres Bush has urged all within the storm path to flee, which is also somewhat of a rarity. Only 3 cat 5 storms have ever hit the U.S., I believe.

Update2: This is almost funny.

National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said: "There's certainly a chance it can weaken a bit before it gets to the coast, but unfortunately this is so large and so powerful that it's a little bit like the difference between being run over by an 18-wheeler or a freight train. Neither prospect is good."

No word yet when. Spent the entire day trying to get info. The two agencies that are handling it are the Red Cross and the Harris Country Citizens Corp. I am coordinating volunteers from my school, and spent most of the day adding names to the list. So far 40 people, and climbing. We also establshed food/clothing drop off places, and figured out some of the logistics for handling that. So far the refugees haven't started coming yet. My feeling is that there is no one group coordinating everything. It seems that the office of homeland security for harris county should be coordinating it, but they aren't doing that good of a job. Probably lack of manpower. The federal dept of homeland security is requesting all their employees. Sorry, no links, too tired.

CNN actually has a decent report, essentially a 'where are they now' theme. Mike Barnett, ex-Green Beret, who rode it out says he won't come back.

"The politicians were promising a comeback. I knew immediately they were dreaming, and as much as I love the city, I couldn't live there anymore, not the way it was. It was hideous, horrendous," said the 35-year-old freelance economic consultant. "I'll never come back to live in New Orleans. I don't have much hope for the city."

He provided a window into New Orleans, he was one of the only ones with an intact internet connection in New Orleans after Katrina. I think the people of New Orleans need to figure out if they want to come back, and then come back and get the job done. However, the infrastructure needs to be there; streets, power, plumbing, libraries, buses, etc. That's the governments responsibility (state/local), and the state of Louisiana has not done all it could. So while people heap blame on Bush for the lack of help for Katrina, remember it's primarily a local response to make sure the buses run, the libraries are open, etc. Once that happens, people will come back, and businesses will open. Until then...it's going to be a long, long road back.

While thinking about Katrina, I re-read some of my old posts (see post chain); the NOAA very accurately described what was to be expected a day or two early:

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

To me the problem with recovery is the absolute lack of infrastructure to a very large portion of the gulf coast area. Still, probablistic speaking, Katrina will hopefully never occur again in our lifetime. That said, we should be more prepared for hurricanes. Houston is actually pretty well sited to survive a major hurricaine; we are far enough inland that storm surge and the hurricane force winds will not affect us too much. Flooding will be an issue, but the city has undergone extensive work to revamp their flood control. New buildings (like the one i work in now) are now essentially flood proof, equiped with sealed basements and presumedly pumps to remove water. But one of the things I need to do is create a hurricane survival kit; we got most of the stuff on hand, but should put it into a bundle somehow.

Update: Paul at wizbang has an excellent post on the Katrina levees and how in fact water seeped under them for a year before Katrina; and how the levees were destined to fail very soon. In fact, he says, Katrina saved lives. Pretty interesting stuff!

heh. But seriously, from what i've seen and heard, these people are finding it very hard to recover, since there is little govt support, no infrastructure, etc. Its not like people can take off the year required without income, and it's not like insurance companies are quick to actually make good on their policies, quite the opposite in fact. So, yeah, it will take years or decades, especially if the govt doesn't impliment a large scale program to restore infrastructure and demolish houses (which is their job, I think).

Houston makes the rounds via InstaGlenn, via LA Times. The article is subscription firewalled, so here it is.

HOUSTON — When the "Katricians" rise up in violence, Houstonians had better be packing some serious heat.

That's the inflammatory message of a new gun-shop commercial on the radio that gives Hurricane Katrina evacuees a vaguely alien-sounding name, and advises Texans to take up arms to defend themselves against crimes committed by the newcomers.

...

Texas officials said applications for concealed-weapons permits were up statewide: 60,328 from Jan. 1 to Sept. 1 this year, compared with 46,298 for the same period last year.

The Houston Police Department estimates that one in five homicides in the city now involves Katrina evacuees — as suspect, victim or both.

Typical inflammatory stuff via LA Times.

Too bad it's not true, according to my crude but laborious analysis. I took the beat stats of the area where I live, right next to the Astrodome, which was the first area the Katrina evacuees came to via the buses from NO. I added up all the crimes in this area from 2004 to July 2006, excluding Nov-Dec 2004, it wasn't available. I then extrapolated the stats for 2004 and 2006. For all major areas of crime, there was no significant change in numbers. This doesn't take into account the fact that crime tends to be worse during winter, since the winter months for 2004 and 2006 aren't available. Further, it doesn't take into account per capita crime stats; I assume the population here went up after Katrina, so the effect would be to actually decrease crime rates.

Here is the chart.


Update: Instaflood! Thank you god, err Glenn! :)

I encourage the Army of Davids to get the data and have a look yourself, since HPD (Houston Police) doesn't actually tabulate data, just make it available.

Update:Thanks to the people in the comments; i found these data for 2004/2005. I'll try to find some aggregate of 2006 later today. The murder rate increased 10% from 2004 to 2005, but all other crimes decreased or stayed the same.




Update2:

I went and added all the HPD stats for this year and did a yearly estimate, and correlated that with the FBI stats. We don't know the current population of Houston, so per capita estimates are not useful. Yes, the murder rate has soared, from 272 in '04 to 408 (est) in '06. However, overall there is no surge in crime. Look at the data and judge for yourself. The blanks for 2006 represent gaps in the data. HPD doesnt measure the same catagories as the FBI. Violent crime = murder+rape+assault+robbery



Update3:

So, the data show that murder has soared ~40%, but not other crimes.

Question1: Does HPD measure attempted murder in these stats? I would expect that to also soar. Assault hasn't significantly increased (probably keeping up with population).

Question2: Who is killing who? Gangbanger vs gangbanger or are non-criminals involved? I'm not saying it's okay for a criminal to kill another criminal (ie gang member). But we have to make up our mind that we really care and this is a significant issue. I haven't heard much out of the politians saying this is something that needs to happen.

Question3: Are there more thieves per capita in the evacuee population than normal? Or did they all stay in NO?

Interesting questions, few answers. Gus Van Horn also has a very nice but older series of posts on this topic.

Update4: Probably the last update. I took the murders for the last 3 months and using a handy mapping program mapped their locations in Houston. The result is below. (also here in a clickable map) Some areas are very 'clean', ie Bellaire, to the left (concentrated around the SW corner of the 610 loop) of the Astrodome area (large arrow). Most that are south of I-10 seem concentrated in the Sharpstown area (along SR59, running NE/SW), and Almeda (between 288 and I-45, 288 running N/S in the middle of the map, and 45 just east of 288). Note outside the beltway I don't think HPD keeps stats since it's not their juristiction.

I think the only remarkable thing is that, while they happen all over, some areas are devoid, ie Memorial around 10 and 610, the med center/bellaire area, inside 610 between 288 and 59, and Jacinto City which is mostly industrial I believe.

The chronicle now reports no significant per capita increase in crime in the counties surrounding but not including Houston. They are using data from the end of 2005. They don't use,oddly enough, the data from Harris county, which has the most people and is where the city of houston is located. (But I did those analyses in a previous post (link below)

[Montgomary county sherrif] Norris said there is no evidence to show that people displaced by Katrina have had any effect on local crime rates.

Norris said that a few months after the hurricane, police quit paying attention to place of origin after experience showed the Katrina victims were not appearing in police reports in any significant numbers.

They are missing the real story about the surge in murder rates compared to the non-surge in other crimes. Alas. Others have lambasted the soaring houston crime rate, hopefully this will put some of those comments to rest. ANyway as a famous person once said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. By incorporating the murder rate into the overall crime rate, you hide the surge in murders.

Update: I sent Eric Hanson a link to my analyses, and got a quick 'thanks for the comments' reply. I guess that means that the story will stay buried. Oh well.