Okay, so they tested their little bomb, and apparently it worked (although there is some doubt about that (it's either a very low yield weapon, or didn't work).

Update: The Foreign Policy blog is speculating what a NK dud would mean, as some nuclear experts suggest the test was. Not knowing anything about nukes, i'd say the suggested yield of only 1kt or so is much less than a sustainable nuclear reaction would produce, but I hardly am an expert in the field.

Update2: U.S. officials are now saying it's a dud.



Update2: Capt. Ed notes that Australia has already impossed unilateral penalties, including revoking visas.


Technorati: North Korea

John McCain, a man I admire, is guest blogging at Captain's Quarters

I would remind Senator Hillary Clinton and other Democrats critical of Bush Administration policies that the framework agreement her husband’s administration negotiated was a failure. The Koreans received millions in energy assistance. They diverted millions in food assistance to their military. And what did they do? They secretly enriched uranium.

Prior to the agreement, every single time the Clinton Administration warned the Koreans not to do something — not to kick out the IAEA inspectors, not to remove the fuel rods from their reactor — they did it. And they were rewarded every single time by the Clinton Administration with further talks. We had a carrots and no sticks policy that only encouraged bad behavior. When one carrot didn’t work, we offered another.

Ouch! Yeah, we need something with teeth, they don't get it otherwise.



Technorati: North Korea

The Independant Conservative points out that the reason they have nukes in the first place is b/c of the Clinton administration helped them there. Further, Dr. Michael Savage advocates a military option, pointing out the futility of sactions. Savage is a right-wing glory-hound nut, but somehow managed to get a PhD from berkley when they were handing them out with UPC coupons. Shrug, takes all types I guess.

Mixter's Mix mentinos that Bush continued the Clinton plan (1994 Agreed Framework), and in 2002 released almost $100M to fund two 'weapon proof' nuke reactors to NK without requiring inspections, thus this could have promoted NK nuclear proliferation. I don't think it helped, but the reactors were never finished. Anyway it's not like we haven't tried giving NK what it wants, but they just ask for more, like a penguin mobster.



Technorati: North Korea

Ennuipundit has a roundup of newspaper quotes, essentially stating that the Bush admin foreign policy has failed in NK, which may be argueably true. The odd thing is that NK is using a nuclear lever to get to bilateral NK/US talks, and so far the Bush admin has resisted this. Why? B/c a) we have no leverage with them, and b) it would elevate them to a place they shouldn't be, in the world of international relations.

And that is why it is so necessary to stand firm in the insistence that North Korea come back to the six-party talks. When a petulant child throws a temper tantrum, you don’t give in, because it teaches the child and other children to throw a tantrum to get their way.

The reason NK wants a bilateral discussion with the US can NOT be good, after they spent this much effort doing so. To me the only thing it could be is a) trade blackmail (ie, you give us weapons and food, or we'll bomb you), or b) withdraw support from SK, at which point they will promply invade and subjugate SK, and you can bet that would not be good for the citizens of SK (since they treat their current citizens so well!).


Technorati: North Korea

Robert Kaplan at the New Republic thinks NK is on the verge of collapse (this was published prior to the nuke test), and gives the stages of what would be expected during a regime collapse (a flood of refuges would be a clear sign). HT: IndieScribe

The UK Times expresses amazment that Kim is still alive.

Technorati: North Korea

Meanwhile at the NK border (warning, very graphic and disturbing)

As Austin bay points out (above link), this may be a turning point in China/Japan relations. And China is mobilizing troops on the NK border. Maybe China will 'clean up their mess' after all! (We can hope, after all, its what the U.S. has done in Central America countless times).

Technorati: North Korea

The Aussie Herald Sun has a roundup of world reaction to the NK test.

Austin Bay gets it (meaning he agrees w/ me)

It’s time for China to make a choice– to defend the wealth-producing global system that is modernizing China or continue to propo up a nuclear-armed failed state that ultimately threatens Chinese economic health.China needs to propose a land and maritime embargo of North Korea, one that hermetically seals the Hermit Kingdom’s borders. And then help enforce it.

So they would have us believe. The latest Time article professes to tell us all about how this current situation is the Bush admin. fault, and how they know exactly what is going on with Kim & Co. It somewhat sticks in my craw. Two points.

1) Time professes that the U.S. wants regime change in NK, but it's neighbors (SK, China) do not. No statement or policy of Bush & Co reflect that. If we wanted regime change, we would take additional steps, such as go before the UN and demand compliance with the Nuclear non proliferation treaty. We would increase the military presence around NK. We haven't done anything like this (as far as i know).

2) The nuke test was a success, it wasn't, again as far as western experts know.

3) "Washington was forced into six-party talks". My recollection is that this is what Bush & Co wanted all along, as opposed to 1x1 talks which Clinton & Co tried but didn't work.

4) Further sactions will attempt to modify NK behavior. I doubt this; the point of further diplomacy from the UN will be to ensure that NK does not proliferate; they are the #1 exporter of ballistic missile technology in the world. (sorry, can't find the link to reputate this)

I find the article arogant and condescending, telling people what to think and how to blame Bush for a wacko dictator half the globe away. We have power but that gives us too much credit. I think every western source believes that it's up to China to actually do something about NK. SK is now increasing their military might, which is a logical harbringer of a new military arms race in the pennensula.